Six Months On: The Longer Term Impact of Person-Centred Problem Solving on Knife Crime Reduction in Milton Keynes

In recent years, the need for well-evidenced, innovative approaches to crime reduction has become increasingly evident. Our randomised control trial of a Focused Deterrence approach, conducted in Milton Keynes, aimed to address this need by delivering person-centred problem-solving alongside a procedurally-just police response.

We published the initial “What Works” paper in October 2024, which outlined the promising results we saw at the end of the RCT that had been run in Milton Keynes. Six months on, this follow-up blog gives an update on what has happened with both cohorts, and what the longer-term impact of the intervention is proving to be.

Key Findings

1. Trial Overview

• The trial was conducted in Milton Keynes and focused on delivering person-centred problem solving in conjunction with a procedurally-just police response.
• The approach was shown to have a more significant impact on under 18s compared to over 18s, likely due to the challenges in engaging older cohorts.

2. Reduction in Crime Harm

• A published review of the trial revealed a significant reduction in overall crime harm.
• For under 18s, there was a 59% reduction in knife-related offending during the twelve months of the trial.

3. Sustained Impact Post-Trial

• Six months of follow-up data indicate a continued beneficial impact, suggesting lasting benefits from the person-centred problem solving approach.
• Although the difference in crime harm was not significant in the follow-up period, there were significant reductions in non-police initiated crime and violent crime days in the overall cohort.
• For under 18s, there was a remarkable 75% reduction in knife-related crimes during the follow-up period.

4. Overall Impact Across 18 Months

• When considering the entire 18-month period, every measure indicated a reduction in crime.

• Significant findings in the overall group included:
  • 37% reduction in violent crime days
  • 46% reduction in knife-related crime incidents
  • 47% reduction in knife-related crime days

• In the under 18 group, significant reductions were observed in:
  • 63% reduction in knife-related crime incidents
  • 60% reduction in knife-related crime days

Implications and Future Directions

The continuation of benefits from this approach, even after the intervention has concluded, highlights the potential of a well-designed person-centred problem-solving strategy to have a lasting impact on crime reduction. This is particularly significant for high-harm crime types such as youth violence and knife offending. Finding evidence-based approaches that continue to reduce harm in vulnerable groups, after the intervention has finished is key to sustainable crime prevention.

Our findings suggest that, if implemented consistently, this approach could significantly reduce youth violence and knife offending, potentially saving lives. However, it is important to note that this was a small trial, so replication of the study and further follow-up at 12 and 24 months would be beneficial to assess the long-term persistence of these effects and how well they transfer to other cohorts.

Conclusion

The results of our randomised control trial in Milton Keynes provide compelling evidence for the effectiveness of person-centred problem-solving in reducing crime, particularly among under-18s. The sustained impact observed post-trial demonstrates that it is possible for interventions to continue to prevent crime, even after the intervention has finished being delivered. As we continue to explore strategies for crime prevention, the insights gained from this trial will be invaluable in shaping future interventions.